Friday, May 6, 2011

Projected Kentucky Derby 2011 Odds

As I posted in my first note, the morning line is just an estimate; the true odds you'll get can't be determined until after the pool has closed. Some money has already been bet on the Kentucky Derby, so we have projected pools, but this is usually just tourist money and not particularly helpful for projecting where the odds will sit.

On the other hand, each year, Churchill Downs includes a Daily Double bet combining the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks (the version of the Derby restricted to female runners). The will-pays for that double are a mature market, so they tend to come out pretty closely to what the odds truly will be.

You can find the actual will-pays in the comments on Steve Crist's DRF blog. Given that market, here's what the final odds will look like tomorrow (just rough projections):

Archarcharch: 10-1
Brilliant Speed: 25-1 
Twice the Appeal: 27-1 (note: I think this will be lower, since there will be more money on Calvin Borel in the win pool than in this pool)
Stay Thirsty: 23-1
Decisive Moment: 74-1
Comma to the Top: 40-1
Pants on Fire: 20-1 (I think this will be lower)
Dialed In: 5.5-1 (seems high)
Derby Kitten: 45-1
Twinspired: 50-1
Master of Hounds: 17-1
Santiva: 23-1
Mucho Macho Man: 11-1
Shackleford: 16-1 (seems high)
Midnight Interlude: 8.5-1 (seems low, but the winner in the Oaks was also Baffert-trained, so this could be Baffert-Baffert money. Expect closer to 10-1)
Animal Kingdom: 16-1
Soldat: 11-1
Nehro: 7.5-1
Watch Me Go: 94-1 (lulz)

People are playing the mud angle with Soldat. Shackleford feels like a value. So does Dialed In (maybe) at 5.5-1, though this could be from people spreading themselves deep. Bettors weren't scared off Archarcharch and the one post too badly. Finally, you won't get 94-1 on any horse in the Derby; memories of Mine That Bird are too fresh, and lots of people bet money on huge longshots just for a chance at a lottery payout. expect 60-1 to be the limit. On the bright side, that means every other payout will go up a little bit because of that.