Showing posts with label BCS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BCS. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

One More BCS Scenario

In my earlier piece, I forgot one other potential BCS/NCAA/DOJ scenario. The Department of Justice may seek a "consent decree," which is something like a settlement and an injunction rolled into one, from the college football powers-that-be. That consent decree might prohibit the NCAA from stopping teams from playing more than one postseason game and might also prohibit the BCS from automatically pairing the top two teams in the championship, instead giving those teams a choice of where to play. At that point, a wealthy benefactor (a television network? Mark Cuban?) could entice the teams to a playoff. The argument is laid out in an article by Andy Schwarz on ESPN posted today.


I wonder, however, whether that kind of negative consent decree would be enough to encourage a playoff, or would just leave teams to revert to the old system; I assume this is where the wealthy benefactor plays a role. If it doesn't result in a playoff, is that collusion between the teams? And who must be included in the development of such a playoff? Would NCAA teams keeping NAIA teams out be impermissible collusion (probably not)? How about FBS teams from keeping FCS teams out? Big Six conference teams keeping the Mountain West out? The Big Ten, Pac-1012, and SEC keeping everyone else out?


In any event, go ahead and read the piece.

DOJ and BCS: Possible Endgames

Last week, the Department of Justice wrote a diplomatic but curt letter to the NCAA asking why the government shouldn't pursue antitrust charges against ... someone in college football (it's unclear what the NCAA has to do with all this, rather than the BCS). I've covered the potential antitrust issues before; on the whole I'm skeptical that antitrust claims will stick but I wouldn't bet my mortgage on it. 


For many people, that doesn't really matter. They see a government antitrust inquiry as a good in and of itself, because it will force the NCAA and the BCS to spend money defending itself, and at some point those entities might just decide that a playoff is more attractive than litigation. I don't have a lot of patience for this argument; at heart, it means filing frivolous lawsuits and wasting taxpayer money is acceptable if it means we get a few extra college football postseason games. If you believe BCS violates antitrust laws, claims should be pursued in court. If you don't really believe that, the justice system should be left alone. The DOJ has enough to worry about, and surely we can find better use for our tax money than strike suits.


All that aside, I can imagine several possible endgames from this inquiry:

  • DOJ declines to pursue antitrust claims; abolutely nothing changes in the BCS: This is still the most likely scenario. DOJ letters of inquiry are not a definite harbinger of future litigation at the federal level. Even Utah Attorney General Mark Shurteff has dawdled on bringing actual charges in a real court, and he has the poltical motivation and backing to do so. The DOJ won't have this motivation (or if it does, that motivation won't nearly be as strong). These are career attorneys with limited resources and few motivations beyond pursuing the strongest possible claims.
  • The DOJ pursues antitrust claims but loses in court; nothing changes in the BCS: Possible, but you do wonder what sort of stomach the major conferences will have for a fight. Litigation is expensive, though this case would be easier than your average antitrust case because it would be entirely about what the law means (is this system an antitrust violation?) rather than what the facts are, which everyone agrees upon.
  • The DOJ wins in court; the judge requires the NCAA to adopt a playoff: < 0.00000001% chance, and if it happens, it will be overturned on appeal. Judges don't like telling businesses how to structure their affairs. The most that will happen is the teams will be enjoined from any BCS-style system; even more likely, they will be enjoined from the BCS exactly as it exists and nothing else. But the court won't impose affirmative duties upon the NCAA or anyone else.
  • The DOJ wins, and the BCS is dismantled in favor of a playoff: the dominant variation on this theme is that because antitrust liability comes with treble damages, college football teams will have no choice but to adopt a playoff, because it would be so lucrative. I don't think this is plausible. First, I'm not sure there will be any monetary damages, even in a successful claim. Who is the victim? Mid-level teams and conferences, perhaps, though it is questionable whether their harm was monetary; were those teams better off in the pre-BCS system? Can they show that, in absence of the illegal BCS agreement, the other teams would have adopted a playoff? Those are tough, tough tasks. The other potential victims I've seen proferred, such as the fans who were denied the ability to watch a college football playoff, are borderline frivolous claims. At minimum, no monetary harm was suffered.

  • The DOJ case is brought, and the conferences say "screw it, we're switching to a playoff": decent chance, especially if other political pressure is applied. Blutarsky at Get the Picture brings up that Congress or other interested politicians could threaten other retribution, such as loss of tax-exempt status (possible) or, the ultimate red-button solution, threatening an end to government funding. This seems somewhat crazy--what will the normal folks who don't follow college football think about defunding colleges so that USC can play Northern Illinois in a first round playoff game?--but hey, politicians are crazy.
  • The DOJ case is brought, and the conferences say "screw it, we're switching to the old system": This is the truly Machiavellian move, and one that I haven't seen discussed. The case would be mooted; an injunction would just say "don't go back to the BCS," and monetary damages are unlikely for the reasons I set out above. And once there's an injunction, you can never go back; do small schools really want to take that chance?

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Utah AG Files Antitrust Suit, Recruits Buddies for Adventure

In my last post, I discuss what antitrust means and how it pertains to the BCS. It's a long post, but in the end I come down on the side that the BCS probably doesn't violate the antitrust statutes, though I don't think it's an easy case either way.

I certainly didn't expect anything to happen on this front so soon, but I guess my sense of unwitting prognostication is quite keen:

Utah's attorney general is investigating the Bowl Championship Series for a possible violation of federal antitrust laws after an undefeated Utes team was left out of the national title game for the second time in five years. 
Attorney General Mark Shurtleff contends the BCS unfairly puts schools like Utah, which is a member of a conference without an automatic bid to the lucrative bowl games, at a competitive and financial disadvantage.
All of the articles on this announcement read the same, and they all read funny. Shurtleff hasn't actually filed a claim yet; he's just announced (again) that he's really serious about it. One article suggested that Shurtleff was looking to prosecute under state antitrust laws, but in federal court; he could do this but it would be a slightly awkward maneuver. One overwhelming problem with any sports/law article is that the people writing them tend to know about, at most, one of the subjects, so they either clip or jumble important information.

That important caveat aside, these stories haven't made the Utah AG look particularly brilliant:
Shurtleff said his office is still in the initial stages of reviewing the Sherman Antitrust Act to see if a lawsuit can be filed. To succeed in a lawsuit, he would have to prove a conspiracy exists that creates a monopoly.
He's said this dozens of times before. That's why I wrote the damn "BCS and the antitrust laws" post; politicians including Shurtleff have already discussed this before. You're still in the initial stages of reviewing? Really?
If a lawsuit is filed against the BCS, though, Shurtleff could end up suing the state he represents. Utah is a member of the Mountain West Conference and Utah State belongs to the Western Athletic Conference; both leagues are members of the BCS. 
"We have to determine the answer to those questions," said Shurtleff, whose planned investigation was reported by the Deseret News on Tuesday. "You determine who it is you're bringing action against."
This is a 15 minute research question. I don't understand what there is to determine. I can see two possible theories: either a suit against the BCS as a whole (essentially every FBS school) or against the six power conferences. I think he'd like to do the second for political reasons (he's not dying to sue Utah, Utah State, and BYU assuming the latter reaches an accord with the BCS), but the strongest antitrust argument might be against the first. But the former could be a silly victory. The BCS restricts Villanova's chance to win a National Championship?

Some of the info in another iteration of the story makes Shurtleff sound even worse:
Shurtleff, who is midway through his third term as Utah attorney general, says his suit will claim restraint of trade and "ask the judge to order some way to fix it. It's not my call on how to fix it, but I think clearly (it would be) to go to a playoff and eliminate the BCS."
Even if the suit is as successful as could possibly be, no federal judge will ever order schools to create a playoff. Judges are loathe to order injunctions that say someone has to do something; they'd rather just tell you to stop doing the bad thing. If the case is successful, the result will be an injunction to stop the BCS. Whether that results in a playoff, no championship game whatsoever, or a slightly altered BCS that removes whatever concerns the judge finds is anyone's guess. But that decision won't come from a federal judge.
He met with Justice Department officials in February, and says he preferred that they take the lead in the legal action. "They kind of suggested that, if the states started, they might follow," he says. "There's no guarantee of that."
Shurtleff is like that friend who always talks about how he wants to rent a Winnebago and drive across the country smoking pot with his college buddies, even though he's 37. Meanwhile, the Department of Justice is the crazy kid from the frat who settled down and became an accountant. They're on the phone one night, catching up on old times, and Shurtleff discusses his crazy plans, while the DOJ just chuckles and humors him. "Yeah, Mark, that would be pretty awesome. If you ever rent that trailer let me now bud, I'd totally think about it."

Actual law-talking guy with some much needed wisdom:

"If it was an open-and-shut, clear-cut violation, then you might think DOJ would be more interested," says Stephen Ross, a Penn State law professor and antitrust expert who once worked for the Federal Trade Commission and the Justice Department. "Beyond that, I think it's hard to read the tea leaves." 
Proving unfair business practices by the BCS won't be enough, he says. Shurtleff will have to show consumer harm. 
"It is possible that the Justice Department's failure to sue simply reflects the fact they believe that, politically, there's sufficient incentive for state attorneys generals to sue and they don't have to do the work and their resources can be better used elsewhere. It is also possible that, on the merits, they think they don't have a good case," Ross says. 
"It's also possible they think it's a close case on the merits and ... it's primarily designed to benefit college football fans of non-BCS conference schools and that it's hard to argue that is something the federal government ought to be spending its time and resources on."
Either the DOJ thinks the case is a loser, or they think it's close enough it's not worth pursuing, or they are waiting for Shurtleff to rent that Winnebago. Let's see if he actually puts down a deposit.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

You and Antitrust: A BCS Primer

(the enemy)


“Antitrust” is one of those words where a few people know what it means, and everyone else nods knowingly whenever the subject comes up. It is a verbal trump card. You can be in an argument about anything—anything at all—with an ordinary person, and if you say “well, of course you have to consider the antitrust ramifications” you will win the argument. Try it later today:
Honey, what are we having for dinner? 
Pork chops. 
I’d prefer meat loaf. 
But have you considered antitrust?
Uh…pork chops it is.
Etc. I was once one of those persons. Now I am the other of those persons. Part of the confusion is because proving an antitrust case is usually hard. Many of the top attorneys in the world are antitrust experts. Trials on antitrust can take an unusually long time, even by the standards of our tortoise-like judicial system, and both sides hire economists with PhDs from expensive schools to prove their cases.

Just because proving an antitrust case is hard, however, doesn’t mean that the entire subject is inscrutable. In fact, much of the subject is surprisingly easy, and understanding what people mean when they say “antitrust” is becoming increasingly important for college football fans. This won't be an exhaustion of the subject, but it should be enough of an introduction that you are no longer forced to submit to unwanted pork chops.

What does antitrust even mean? What is a trust? Why are we against them?

Don’t worry about the “trust” part of antitrust; it is just a product of the early history of the subject, when large conglomerates of would-be competitors arranged themselves as “trusts” to avoid competition against one another. This isn’t so much of a concern anymore; nowadays you are more likely to encounter a trust as a way of passing money to someone else, sort of like a will. Think of the topic as “anti-monopoly” rather than “antitrust” and you will be better served.

Then why are we anti-monopoly?

Monopolies are bad for a few reasons. Free competition is good because it leads to lower prices and more of the product being sold. Those two things are actually the same thing; the scarcer the supply, the more the thing will cost. Price goes up as supply shrinks (think about groceries just before a hurricane).

A monopoly company raises its prices. It can do that because there are no other competitors (or few competitors) to drive prices down. When it raises its prices, some people stop buying the product, while others pay more for it. This is bad, because under competition more people would have the product, and we want people to have things. There’s some economics involved here, but just trust me when I say there’s more societal good as a whole (to both the consumers and the companies) in competition than there is in a monopoly, where lots of beneficial transactions are not performed. In other words, I would have bought a pound of bananas at 50 cents, but because the monopoly raised prices, I can no longer afford the bananas.

So, being a monopoly is illegal?

Not exactly. The reason people go into business is to become a monopoly, or at least to have market power. Classic economic theory says that in perfectly free competition, no company will make any profits beyond what they would make doing their next best option. This isn’t good enough for most people to enter business; entrepreneurs want profit. This is why they invent new products, try to make existing products cheaper, etc. We want to encourage these things, so we don’t make being successful in business illegal by itself. (We see this in patents and copyrights, where we actually give creators monopoly rights; we want new products and works to exist more than we are concerned about competition, at least for a little while).

Then what is illegal?

One thing that is especially bad is when lots of companies group together and mimic a large monopoly (this is what the original business trusts did, among other things). For example, if you and I own the only two gas stations for fifty miles, we would be expected to compete against each other for customers. If I went to you and said “let’s both raise our prices by 50 cents a gallon; we’ll both make more money,” and you agree, our two competing companies would be acting like a monopoly. This is just as bad as if a monopoly existed naturally. That is illegal under the Section 1 of the Sherman Act, which forbids unreasonable behavior such as price fixing.

Wait, I see gas stations right next to one another with the same price all the time! Isn’t that an antitrust violation?

Probably not. There are two possibilities here. The first is that the market is very competitive and companies in the same area are just charging the market rate. This is a strong possibility in the gas market, since all gasoline is pretty much the same. Prices might change based on geography or taxes, but if two gas stations are in the same location and otherwise similar, neither one can afford to charge less than the other gas station, since even a penny difference might lead motorists to go to the other station.

There’s a less wholesome possibility as well. Perhaps I do not go to you and ask you to raise your prices; that would be illegal, and I don't want to break the law. Instead, one morning I post my prices on my giant electronic sign as 50 cents higher than yours. You are wise to my plan and raise your prices as well. We’ve never even spoken with one another, but we’ve silently agreed to raise prices in parallel. Courts have decided that telling this situation from the first situation is too difficult and so this is allowed as well, even though the result is the same as the illegal scenario above. The legal looks just like the illegal, so we can't risk punishing the former.

Luckily, silent cartel arrangements are very unstable. If I raise my prices 50 cents, you could raise your prices 49 cents, make a great profit, and still get most of the business since you have cheaper gas. This is even a problem when we actually discuss creating a cartel (OPEC countries cheat on their cartel agreement all the time to make a little more money); when we don’t speak, the cartel is very hard to maintain. Things tend back towards competition.

What else is illegal?

All the secondary signs that a cartel has been created are also illegal. For example, punishing a company for not maintaining high prices is illegal (craftmen’s unions sometimes run into this problem by refusing to accredit workers who are not charging high enough rates). Tying a product that you have a monopoly in to a product in which you do not have a monopoly is also illegal. (If you want my printer, where I have a monopoly, you’ll have to spend more money on my ink, which is otherwise a competitive market).

Another common example is splitting areas by geography. If Pepsi and Coca-Cola agreed to stop competing nationally, with instead Pepsi agreeing to compete only west of the Mississippi River and Coca-Cola only east of the river, this would be an antitrust violation, since each company is acting as a monopoly in its own area. The Department of Justice website provides a helpful checklist of some other things that are potentially illegal.

Interestingly, just being a monopoly is not illegal. If my company does well, drives my competitors out of business, and thereby becomes a monopoly, this is fine (eventual monopoly status is the carrot we use to get people to go into business). But companies are not allowed to use that monopoly power to fight unfairly against new competitors. For example, let’s say I’m the only airplane company. Running an airline is expensive, but I’ve done well and have become a monopoly. Thus, I am making tremendous profits. Every time a new company spends the money to enter the market, I lower my prices so much that I am temporarily losing money. Once the new company folds, I go back to my old, high prices. Discouraging competition like this is illegal, though telling apart normal competition from predatory pricing is very difficult (that’s why the attorneys and the experts make so much money).

Don’t sports leagues do some of the things you’ve described?

Yes, kind of. There are three different possibilities at play here. Some sports leagues are set up as a single business (this is true of the MLS, which did this specifically to avoid antitrust problems). Major League Soccer can create whatever rules and regulations they want because the teams are separate several companies, and there cannot be a one-company cartel.

Th MLS is arrangement is unusual, however, and it only exists because the MLS was actually thinking about antitrust when it was formed. In most leagues, every team is a separately owned company. The NFL does not own the Browns, the NBA does not own the Cavaliers, and MLB does not own the Indians. Yet those competing companies have to agree on some things, like how big the field will be. There literally cannot be a game if both teams can’t agree how many bases go on a diamond; even negotiating this before each game would be a massive annoyance. Better for all the teams to just agree in advance. This sounds silly, but most companies cannot define the boundaries of their competition in such a way (hey Pepsi, we're only going to sell cola and root beer, and only in plastic bottles, OK?)

Field dimensions are the easy examples; many are more difficult. Are salary caps an antitrust violation? A salary cap is an agreement by all teams to only pay their employees so much; this would be illegal in almost any other sector. But salary caps are arguably needed in sports leagues because competitive balance is needed for the league, as a whole, to be successful. Everyone in the NFL benefits when all the teams are competitive. (Salary caps are also OK because the union has agreed to them and labor law governs some of this area, but set that aside). Teams want to compete against one another on the field, but they are not trying to drive one another out of business; competition in sports leagues is friendlier than on Wall Street.

One league, the MLB, has a judicially-granted antitrust exemption. The reasons for this are quirky and not particularly sound, either legally or economically, but this has been true for almost a century and is just the way things are. The other professional sports leagues do not have this total exemption, but between the labor agreements and the necessity of running a sports league, these leagues have far more leeway than other sectors. They also often have limited exemptions in some areas, such as television agreements; these exemptions have been granted by Congress, not the courts.

As an added complication, competition could mean many things for sports leagues. First, there is competition within the league (the Bears vs. the Packers). Second, there is competition against other sports leagues (NFL vs. NBA), or against other forms of entertainment (NFL vs. other television shows, or NFL vs. opera). Defining the market is tricky; does the NFL compete in the professional football market (definitely a monopoly), the football market (split with college football), the television market (a major player), or the entertainment market (one of thousands or perhaps millions of choices)? Just how “unique” is the NFL or football that it makes its own separate market? That is, to what extent do fans replace professional football with other forms of entertainment (how many football fans would become opera fans if the NFL was too expensive? How many would become college football fans?)

Where does the NCAA fit into all of this?

There is no college football antitrust exemption from either Congress or the courts. Because the NCAA is a sports league, however, the competitors within the NCAA can reach more agreements than, say, Pepsi and Coke, so long as those agreements make college football more competitive as a whole. Thus the NCAA decide how long the field should be and whether you need one foot down or two for a completed pass. The NCAA can also set prices (i.e., amateurism) because keeping amateurism in college sports is arguably necessary for college football to retain their competitiveness with other forms of entertainment (this is more controversial). Yet the NCAA doesn't have carte blanche; the Supreme Court held in the 1980s that the NCAA could not limit the number of college football games shown on television, because by limiting the games, the NCAA was acting like a monopoly within the televised college football market.

How about the BCS?

The BCS is not the NCAA. The NCAA has almost nothing to do with the NCAA, beyond giving certification to the bowl games that make up the BCS games. Instead, the BCS is a separate arrangement reached by the six major college football conferences.

You can probably see where this is tricky. The BCS is an agreement amongst competitors, which is always a little fishy, yet it is being done in a sports league, where a little extra leeway is always provided since some agreements are necessary. Not all teams are treated the same under the BCS, so there is a fear that the BCS is acting like a certification that is only sparingly given so that the chosen few retain a monopoly over quality college football.

But the case against the BCS isn’t a slam dunk. The quantity of college football playoff games has gone up, not down, since the BCS was put in place (from zero playoff games to one). If the BCS was removed, there’s a good chance the number of playoff games would go down (from one to zero). Supply usually increases when cartel restrictions are removed—that’s what happened in the college football television market. Remember, when supply increases, prices go down, and we almost always want supply to increase, all else being equal.

There’s also the argument that no teams are excluded from the games governed by the BCS. About 10% of the teams playing in BCS games have been from outside the BCS conferences. One of those teams, Utah, has even obtained BCS membership. As for the restrictions, there is a plausible argument that those restrictions are necessary to preserve the value of the BCS; not all conference championships automatically earn games, but no one cares about the best MAC or Sun Belt team, while (arguably) lots of people care about the best Big East or ACC team, even when those teams are mediocre. Every conference gets a payment from the BCS (even when no teams take the BCS games), and conferences that place teams get fairly large payments. On the whole, the size of these payments has reflected the popularity of the conferences (Big Ten and SEC first, other major conferences next, then the mid-major conferences). Popularity is what drives value, after all, so this is a reasonable arrangement (so the argument goes).

So, antitrust is complicated, despite what you said?

I never said it wasn’t complicated, just that the ideas underpinning it are simple. Describing the economic concepts is one thing; finding evidence in the real world is difficult, since there is all sorts of random noise that needs to be filtered out. Unless you have a document that says “let’s conspire to fix prices” (and you do find those sometimes), the case will be a tough one. There is no smoking gun in the BCS case because everyone agrees on the facts; the disagreement is on the economic effect. Without dismantling the BCS, we don’t know what would happen if we dismantled the BCS.

Last week, a group of professors—mostly business school professors but some law professors—wrote a letter to the DOJ that won’t do anything arguing the BCS runs afoul of the antitrust laws. Lester Munson says the case is a no brainer. Maybe, but the bulk of the academic literature (though not all of it) says the BCS is probably legally OK. Someday, we may find out. But now you at least have an idea of what everyone is talking about.