Ron Zook for Illinois AD

(obligatory)

Longtime Illinois athletic director Ron Guenther announced his retirement last week. Most of the focus has been on what effect that could have on often-embattled coaches Bruce Weber and Ron Zook, but seeing as how those programs have achieved at about their historical norm most years under those coaches, with one wildly successful season apiece, the danger to those two is probably a bit overstated. Zook in particular seems to have Illinois ensconced in the meaty middle of Big Ten teams, and while that doesn't sound like much, Illinois went over .500 twice in the past decade. Meaty middle is an accomplishment in Champaign, at least on the football field.


Judging from the past paragraph and the title of the post, you probably know where I'm going with this: isn't Ron Zook the perfect athletic director candidate? He has spent a lifetime in major conference college football, and while he hasn't been particularly successful, he probably has more of a sense of what it a coach needs to win than your average businessman or athletic department employee. The coach-to-athletic director move isn't unprecedented (the best athletic director in the Big Ten is Wisconsin's Barry Alvarez).


Besides, 90% of an athletic director's job is spent either fundraising or thinking up zany schemes to make those fundraising efforts even more successful. Zook's recruiting prowess is unquestioned, and even the bulk of Illinois fans that don't particularly care for Zook the Coach seem to like Zook the Person. At 57 years old, Zook, may be tiring of chasing down high school football players during every waking moment of his free time. At the very least, the hors d'oeuvres are better when you spend every waking moment of your life chasing down millionaires looking to part with their disposable income. As for the other 10% of the job, search firms do most of the heavy lifting when communicating with prospects for coaching vacancies, and everyone in the business knows the top ten or so candidates each offseason. Figuring out which one of those candidates is actually a good head coach is probably little better than a crap shoot; just ask the guy booing Gene Chizik on the tarmac, or Charles "Turner Gill or Racism" Barkley.


There's a thousand reasons this won't happen, not least of which is that the football season is less than 100 days away--not exactly the best time to announce a new head coach, even if the promotion was made from within. And I'm sure this will seem like a success-through-failure promotion to many, even if sound football strategy is not a prerequisite or even helpful as an athletic director. But Illinois can, and probably will, do a lot worse.

The Big Ten and the NFL Draft: 1st Round

While none of the players likely to be taken in the top five picks this evening will hail from the Big Ten, the conference will be well-represented tonight at the Music City Concert Hall. I’m going to err on the side of including everybody that could possibly be taken in the first 32 picks in this, partly because it will make my job easier tomorrow when I look at the next two rounds.

Illinois:

Corey Liuget, DT: In a draft less stocked with interior defensive line players (Nick Fairley and Marcel Dareus, for starters), there’s a good chance that Liuget could have been the first player at his position off the board. Even with the deep defensive line stock this year, Liuget is almost certain to go somewhere in the first round, with a range anywhere from the St. Louis Rams at 14 to the Chicago Bears at 30.

Martez Wilson, LB: A stretch for the first round, but possible after an impressive showing at the combine. There’s still some question as to whether Wilson will play in the middle or on the outside, mostly focusing on his ability to cover and fall backwards into a deep Tampa 2 zone. This is a very weak draft for linebackers, especially in the middle, so a team with a serious need (San Diego, perhaps) could reach, but Wilson is probably a late-second to third round pick.

Mikel LeShoure, RB: LeShoure has neither hurt nor helped himself greatly during the pre-draft workout process, showing reasonable speed for his size. Concerns about reliability (he had some poor games against awful defenses like Indiana and Purdue) and receiving skills have dampened his stock. The first round might be a stretch, but LeShoure is a lock to be gone by the second round, and he may be the second running back taken off the board (behind Alabama’s Mark Ingram).

Indiana:

James Brewer, OT: If Brewer played for Illinois or Wisconsin I’d probably just wait until tomorrow to write him up, but he is Indiana’s only hope of sneaking into the first round, so here you go, Hoosier fans! He’s probably a better bet for the third or fourth, though he could go as high as the mid-second round, with some whispers that Brewer might be higher than anticipated on a few teams’ draft boards.

Iowa:

Adrian Clayborn, DE: That Clayborn is still considered a possible first round pick is a testament to his fantastic junior year, because (in my opinion) Clayborn may have been the most disappointing player in the Big Ten last year. The potential is still there, and every now and again the ability snuck through, but despite claims to the contrary, Clayborn wasn’t even drawing double teams by the end of last season. Add in that two other Iowa defensive linemen will be drafted this weekend, suggesting that he had quite a bit of help in creating pressure, and Clayborn looks like a huge risk. That being said, he’s unlikely to fall lower than the mid-second round, and a mid-first round pick is still possible.

Michigan:

No potential first round picks.

Michigan State:

No potential first round picks

Minnesota:

No potential first round picks.

Nebraska:

Prince Amukamara, CB: The Big Ten’s likely first draft pick this evening, depending upon how you look at things (he never played a single Big Ten game, nor is Nebraska a conference member yet, but why let silly little details like that get in the way?) Most people have Amukamara going with the 7^th pick to the San Francisco 49ers; he’ll almost definitely be the second cornerback taken, after Patrick Peterson.

Northwestern:

No potential first round draft picks

Ohio State:

Cameron Heyward, DE/DT: It’s a little crazy that so much of the Big Ten’s elite talent last year was on the defensive line. It’s also a little crazy that Ohio State and Michigan have only one player combined that could possibly go in the first round tonight (add Penn State to that list as well if you think Stefen Wisniewski has no chance of going in the first). Heyward is probably a lock for the first round, but I think he’s no better than the fourth-best defensive line prospect from the Big Ten, behind Ryan Kerrigan, JJ Watt, and Corey Liuget. Part of Heyward’s value comes from his versatility, as he could play the interior or exterior in a 4-3 defense or play defensive end in a 3-4, so he could go to any team with a need anywhere on the defensive line.

Penn State:

Stefen Wisniewski, OG/C: A stretch for the first round if only because of his position (interior offensive lineman are usually seen as later picks), Wisniewski will nevertheless be one of the first guards taken off the board, whether today or (more likely) tomorrow. He is probably a lock for the second round, though it’s more likely a team with a need for line help at the end of the first round (Chicago, perhaps) would reach for him than that he’ll fall all the way to the third round.

Purdue:

Ryan Kerrigan, DE: The Big Ten’s best NFL prospect this season, if you don’t count Nebraska’s Amukamara. What Kerrigan did last season for Purdue was downright heroic, considering how little talent he had to support him on defense and how long the defense stayed on the field. Unlike Clayborn, Kerrigan was facing double and even triple teams all season, yet his numbers remained solid. The one question mark for Kerrigan is where he will play; a defensive end in college, NFL teams may see him as more of a 3-4 OLB. That limits his potential draft locations, but it shouldn’t keep him from falling out of the first round.

Wisconsin:

JJ Watt, DE: Competitor with Kerrigan for first non-Nebraska Big Ten player taken tonight. I like Kerrigan a little bit more, but that’s quibbling; Watt was a fantastic player last season on a defensive line that, while talented, did not give opposing offenses nightmares (besides from Watt, that is). Like Kerrigan, he may be seen as a better fit for the 3-4; unlike Kerrigan, he would still play defensive end. It’s not impossible that he’ll be drafted as an interior lineman either, but unlikely. Watt is a lock for the first round.

Gabe Carimi: The latest in a long line of great Wisconsin linemen, Carimi isn’t quite the prospect of Joe Thomas but isn’t all that far off. Indianapolis looks like an extremely strong possibility for Carimi with the 22^nd pick; if he doesn’t get taken there, he probably won’t fall much further.

One Final Note on Jereme Richmond

The words "Developmental League" are peppered liberally throughout the twitterverse this afternoon (I deployed the slur myself), but I think that people should stop using the phrase pejoratively and recognize the D-League for what it's worth. 19 year old Jereme Richmond is perfect for the Developmental League. He's a very talented, very raw basketball player with (hypothetically) a not-terribly robust interest in higher education and a desire to improve his basketball skills. He can either stay in college (also perhaps hypothetically), or he can make a little money shuttling between Europe and New Mexico. That's a pretty decent life as a nineteen year old, and it comes with a small-but-not-impossible chance that he makes an NBA squad immediately.


(Sorry for the "all Illinois, all the time" start to this place, but between Weber rumors, the Richmond news, and Illinois being the first team alphabetically in the Big Ten it just sort of happened that way. Everything will even out over time.)

Big Ten Basketball Departures

Jereme Richmond has declared for the Developmental League Draft. The writing was probably on the wall when he was semi-suspended for Illinois's two tournament games, but now its official: Jereme Richmond will be taking his talents to Maine or Reno. Richmond was a McDonald's All-American (Illinois's first since Dee Brown) and made the Big Ten All-Freshman team this season, but his Illini career has to be seen as a massive disappointment. Here's Bruce Weber with a teeth-gritting pat on the back:

Jereme is an extremely talented player who helped us at nearly every position," Weber said. "His versatility and ability to impact the game in a number of different areas are skills that will help him greatly as he pursues his dream of playing professional basketball. We wish Jereme the best and thank him for all he has meant to the Illinois basketball program, from the time he committed as a high school freshman through his contributions this past season.

A guess: Richmond doesn't make the Weber family Christmas Card this year. This isn't a Darius Morris "testing the waters" declaration either; Richmond doesn't know where he's headed, but it's not Chambana. Illinois now loses four seniors and a freshman that played about 20 minutes per game. I can't see Bruce Weber's seat getting cooler next year.


Understandably, Illinois fans are a little skeptical that Richmond has made the correct decision, but (and this is speculation) there's a good chance Richmond wasn't going to be permitted to return next year anyway; the silence from the coaching staff as to the true reason for his suspension suggests academic problems that they can't technically comment upon yet. If so, Richmond is better off earning a salary somewhere than playing for a junior college in Nome.


Cullen Payne is no longer a Hawkeye: Payne played quite a bit as a freshman on Todd Lickliter's final version of the black and gold, but sat most of this year with sports hernia. As such, the loss will be felt a little less than Richmond's departure from the Illini, but he was a starter in the Big Ten as a freshman with (likely) three more years of eligibility, assuming he gets a medical redshirt for this season. He was also a ballhander, which Iowa isn't swimming in at the moment. Assuming he still wants to play basketball, he'll land somewhere in D-1. Black Heart Gold Pants with thoughts here.


Paul Lusk takes the Missouri State position: Assistant coaching positions are funny in basketball. Because there are only three of them per team, every coach is usually seen as essential for either recruiting or game preparation (or they're reviled by their team's fanbase). Teams lose assistant coaches, and life tends to go on.


Lusk was closer to Painter than most assistant coaches are, however, and was seen as something as a coach-in-waiting for Purdue should something happen. With Painter's re-commitment to the Boilermakers, that "something" is more hypothetical than it was a week ago. Hammer and Rails talks about the departure here; Boiled Sports breaks down some potential replacements here, with the caveat that Purdue probably isn't getting a guy like Dakich. Chances are they'll nab a guy no one has heard of, and he'll do fine. Or he'll be hated.

Football Preview: Illinois

2010 Record: 7–6 (4–4), victory over Baylor in Texas Bowl.

Buy low, sell high. Ron Zook is a commodity trader’s dream (and not only for his intensity); every time his value seems to run a little low, his teams rebound. Every time expectations rise above the bare minimum, his price plummets. If only pork bellies were so predictable.

Fired after two and a half disappointing seasons at Florida and left to fester for the remainder of the third, Zook’s problem was never success in the major games—it was the Mississippi States of the world that led to his demise. Taking over an Illinois team that had cratered under Ron Turner, Zook’s first two editions of the Fighting Illini were little better than Turner’s last two, though there were signs that things were beginning to turn around. Arrelious Benn and Martez Wilson were only the two most prominent examples of Illinois’s newfound recruiting prowess under Zook (no one has ever doubted his recruiting ability). The 2006 team lost most of their games, but the losses weren’t quite so embarrassing; #1 Ohio State was given a fight in Champaign, Zook won his first conference game (and probably ended the John L. Smith reign of terror in East Lansing) and, for the first time in almost half a decade, Illinois at least looked like a major conference program, even if the wins weren't quite there yet.

Still, no one predicted what followed in 2007: 9-3, wins over ranked Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State teams, and Illinois’s first Rose Bowl berth since 1983. Never mind that the Illini were destroyed by the obviously superior USC. 2007 was a success.

Buy low, sell high. The 2007 team lost Rashard Mendenhall to the NFL draft but returned much of the rest of the team. Despite improving statistically, the team slipped to 5-7 and missed the postseason entirely. These things happen; the close games that all seemed to turn out Illinois's way in 2007 ended as losses in 2008. With nearly the full team returning in 2009, there was plenty of cause for optimism. Sell high; Illinois slipped even further in 2009 to 3-9, with only a lopsided victory over Michigan salvaging the season. Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, and most of what little offensive firepower existed would be gone following the season, either to the draft or from lack of eligibility.

Given all that, few expected much from the 2010 Illini, especially while breaking in a freshman quarterback and two new coordinators. Buy low. After a plucky losses to Missouri and Ohio State, Illinois stomped Penn State in Happy Valley, dominating in all phases of the game at a stadium that Illinois has enjoyed little success historically. After similarly lopsided victories against Indiana and Purdue, Illinois sat at 3-2 in the conference with three winnable games remaining.

Sell high. First there was the 67–65, triple overtime loss to Michigan. There’s no shame in losing to Michigan in Ann Arbor (even Rich Rodriguez’s Michigan), but that was followed with a loss at home to moribund Minnesota. Buy low: Mikel Leshoure fulfilled his manifest destiny, running west for 330 yards at Wrigley Field against Northwestern after an unprecedented ESPN Gameday appearance for the match between the in-state rivals. Sell high: two weeks later, Fresno State, the fourth best team in the WAC, defeated a listless Illinois team with a little help from an awful field and an iffy call or two. Buy low: A toss-up on paper, Illinois suffocates Baylor’s explosive quarterback Robert Griffin III and wins 38–14.

Given that history, predicting the 2011 Illinois season would be easier if the expectations were clear. The 2010 team was young, but that team also lost three players (Leshoure, Wilson, and Corey Liuget) likely to be selected in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. Still, the Leaders Division is the softer of the two Big Ten divisions this coming season, and with Ohio State’s gold pants related troubles, Illinois has fewer question marks at quarterback than any other team in their grouping. Even better, Illinois earned all four of their conference wins in 2010 by 20 points or more, while three of their four losses came by single digits (and the fourth was by eleven). No one is demanding conference championships from this team yet, but a little consistency would be nice.

Offense

Offensive Coordinator – Paul Petrino (2nd year): Illinois’s offense last year had a surprisingly large number of looks, especially considering that quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase was only a redshirt freshman. Despite the number of different formations and variations, however, the offense scheme was usually a traditional spread/triple option look (sometimes running the triple option Nebraska-style out of the I formation, sometimes using a more traditional veer look from the shotgun) with some easy passes mixed in for Scheelhaase to keep defenses honest. About 70% of plays ended up as rushes, though that number also includes sacks and scrambles that were intended to be passes. Look for that ratio to end closer to 60–40 this season with the loss of Leshoure and the development of Scheelhaase as a passer. Illinois finished an almost-exactly median 58th in the country on offense according to Football Outsiders, with a 49th ranked rushing offense and a 73rd ranked passing offense. Don't be surprised if those numbers flip this season with the overall ranking remaining similar, though an improvement through the air for Scheelhaase could loosen defenses on the ground as well.

Bruce Weber is Staying At Illinois, and That's Probably OK

Rejoice, Illinois fans; Bruce Weber is still yours!

OK, the reaction to this news amongst Illinois fans, at least from what I can tell, is something less than the reaction Purdue fans had to the Matt Painter news yesterday. That's what a few disappointing seasons will do to a fanbase, and understandably so. 

But with Athletic Director Ron Guenther likely serving his last few months in office and with a young team perhaps particularly susceptible to transfer risks, this was not an opportune time for a coaching change (not to mention: many Illini fans are still furious that Bill Self spurned them for Kansas, because of what it said about the relative status of their program. What would it say about the status of Illinois if Bruce Weber left for Oklahoma?)

There are lots of costs that come with a coaching change. Recruiting relationships must be reestablished. Buyouts must be proffered, both for the old and the new coach (though if Weber left of his own accord, of course, this wouldn't be a problem for Illinois). There's no guarantee the old players will respond to the new coach, or that they will even stick around to find out.

And then there's the problem that we still have no clue what makes a coaching relationship a success. Michigan can sign the most successful coach in West Virginia history and the architect of spread football, and suffer their worst three year stretch since the Lindbergh Baby Kidnapping. Auburn grabs a 5-19 coach from Ames and wins a national championship and wins a national championship two years later. USC signs an NFL washout and constructs one of the most frightening college football dynasties of all time. These things are more art than science. About the best thing athletic directors can do is make a sufficiently safe selection that they aren't blamed too much if things don't work out. The AD that hires Brad Stevens away from Butler will have instant failure insurance. That's worth almost as much as success itself.

Linkfest! 3-31-2011

Is it Illinois's turn to play coach chicken? The campus rally for Bruce Weber might draw fewer students than the one for Matt Painter in West Lafayette.


Corn Nation breaks down the Nebraska basketball season that was.


Speaking of the Cornhuskers, Teddy Greenstein of the Chicago Tribune talks to Nebraska AD Tom Osborne.


Brian Cook says Michigan's freshmen might not take as big a step forward in their sophomore year as the average freshmen. Still, "our freshmen were too good" is a nice problem to have.


Dr. Saturday takes a brief look at soon-to-be Ohio State gameday head coach Luke Fickell.


The Daily Gopher skips all the way forward to the 2013 football season. That might not be a bad idea for Gophers fans.

Linkfest! 3-30-2011

Robert at A Lion Eye makes the trek to Champaign for the first spring practice and posts some thoughts.


Lake the Posts breaks down the Northwestern basketball season that was. I'll have my own thoughts(?) on the subject in a few weeks.


Ramzy at Eleven Warriors goes through the second stage of grief after a disappointing end to the Ohio State basketball season.


Meanwhile, Travis at Hammer and Rails has skipped straight through to state three over the Matt Painter Saga.


Penn State loses defensive end Pete Massaro for the season. Tough break for a unit destroyed by injuries last season.